Saturday 31 March 2012

Doncaster/ Kempton/ Meydan - March 31

I suppose I was due a bad week, so I'll take last weeks results on the chin. There's a feast of flat racing today to get our teeth into today, with the international flavour of the Dubai World Cup meet usually offering up decent betting opportunities, given our bookies find it difficult to accurately price up the different strands of form on offer.

Summary: Bet 13pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 13pts
Overall Profit - 176.6pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:05 Doncaster: Miami Gator - 1pt ew @ 50/1 (Coral)
2:10 Meydan: Do It All - 2pts @ 12/1 (Coral)
3:15 Doncaster: Edinburgh Knight - 4pts @ 12/1* (William Hill)
3:25 Meydan: Balada Sale - 2pts @ 12/1* (William Hill)
3:30 Kempton: Fork Handles - 1pt ew @ 40/1 (Coral)
3:50 Doncaster: Lady Poppy - 1pt ew @ 20/1 (Coral)
4:00 Meydan: Sole Power - 2pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)
4:35 Meydan: The Factor - 2pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)
5:25 Meydan: Xtension - 1pt win @ 24 (Betfair), 1pt place @ 7.2 (Betfair)
6:00 Meydan: St Nicholas Abbey - 2pts @ 7/2 (Tote)
6:40 Meydan: Royal Delta - 4pts @ 10/1* (William Hill)

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Saturday 24 March 2012

Lingfield/ Newbury - March 24

The good spell continued last Saturday, with 2 winners  and 2 that lost in photo finishes, leaving a nice profit even betting at minimal stakes.

Summary: Bet - 9pts, Return - 28.5pts, Profit - 19.5pts
Overall Profit - 189.6pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:05 Newbury: Gan On - 2pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:25 Lingfield: Pale Orchid - 1pt @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes) 
2:40 Newbury: Native Beauty 1pt ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:55 Lingfield: Medicean Man - 1pt @ 9/2* (Tote)
3:25 Lingfield: Junoob - 4pts @ 11/2* (William Hill)
3:40 Newbury: Mon Parrain - 2pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)
4:00 Lingfield: Kingscroft - 1pt @ 100/30 (Coral)

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Saturday 17 March 2012

Ffos Las/ Uttoxeter - March 17

What a fantastic day yesterday, producing my biggest single days profit in the year.

Summary: Bet - 30pts, Return - 136pts, Profit - 106pts
Overall Profit - 170.1pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:10 Uttoxeter: Pampelonne - 1pt @ 7/1 (Coral)
2:25 Ffos Las: Lava Lamp - 1pt @ 8/1* (Paddy Power)
2:45 Uttoxeter: Volador - 1pt @ 11/2* (Paddy Power)
3:20 Uttoxeter: Major Malarkey - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:35 Ffos Las: Grand Slam Hero - 1pt @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes) 
3:55 Uttoxeter: Robobar - 1pt @ 11/1 (Coral)

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Friday 16 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival - Friday

A losing day yesterday, which leaves today as the big decider over whether I'll finish Cheltenham in profit or not. Catch Me was close in the Pertemps Hurdle, but close wasn't good enough.

Summary: Bet - 24pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 24pts
Overall Profit - 64.1pts

Todays analysis as follows:

1:30 - Chances are given to quite a few here. Baby Mix, Darroun, Grumeti, Hisaabaat and Sadlers Risk are all possibles, but Pearl Swan's performance last time out over course and distance was impressive and he seems to me to have more scope for improvement than the others.
Recommended Bet: Pearl Swan - 4pts @ 7/1* (Tote)

2:05 - Wide open as per usual. I had a hunch for Une Artiste earlier in the week but was put off by its long odds on Betfair. I'm not going to make the same mistake this time and will go for The Bull Hayes who could be an Irish improver. Other each way chances are given to Desert Cry and Via Galilei.
Recommended Bet: The Bull Hayes - 2pts win @ 85 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 15.5 (Betfair)

2:40 - I want to take on the talked up Boston Bob here and like the chances of Brindisi Breeze and Mount Benbulben against him. Hopefully Brindisi Breeze will run them ragged from the front and test out any of his rivals stamina limitations.
Recommended Bet: Brindisi Breeze - 4pts @ 10/1* (Paddy Power)

3:20 - I was disappointed to wake up to see Synchronised had been tipped up by Pricewise as that meant there was no chance of him being an each way bet that I had wanted. With doubts about the big 2 I'll stick with him though.
Recommended Bet: Synchronised - 8pts @ 10/1* (William Hill)

4:00 - Not my favourite race. My Flora, Herons Well and Count Salazar have place prospects, but On The Fringe was fancied last year, and with a top amateur on board I like his chances to make amends this year.
Recommended Bet: On The Fringe - 4pts @ 9/1* (Tote)

4:40 - The first of two wide open handicaps to finish. Any Pipe horse has to be respected but I have it between Open Hearted and Make A Track, but the form of the Henderson yard has me picking their one.
Recommended Bet: Open Hearted - 3pts @ 14/1* (Ladbrokes)

5:15 - The lucky last! Idarah is an Irish entrant that commands respect near the bottom of the handicap, but I have to plump for a Henderson horse in a race he always lays out plenty of live chances in. Of his entrants Eradicate is the one I like best.
Recommended Bet: Eradicate - 3pts @ 21 (Betfair)

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Thursday 15 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival - Thursday

A nice maximum bet winner on Bobs Worth ensured a profit on Day 2. More of the same please!

Summary: Bet - 32pts, Return - 42.3pts, Profit - 10.3pts
Overall Profit - 88.1pts 

Todays race analysis as follows:

1:30 - I have this between the first three in the market in Cristal Bonus, Peddlers Cross and Sir Des Champs, but Peddlers Cross looks the classiest to me.
Recommended Bet: Peddlers Cross - 4pts double with Big Bucks @ 13/2* (Paddy Power)

2:05 - Barwell Bridge and Thehillofuisneach have good chances but preference is for Catch Me, who strikes me as a JP McManus horse laid out for this.
Recommended Bet: Catch Me - 4pts @ 12/1* (Tote)

2:40 - There could be a surprise here. The likes of Poquelin and Forpadydeplasterer could come back to form at decent odds, but Captain Chris ticks all the right boxes for me.
Recommended Bet: Captain Chris - 4pts @ 12/1 (Skybet)

3:20 - Big Bucks looks unbeatable, but as we have seen this week there is no such thing as a certainty. With the form of the Henderson yard we might have his biggest opposition yet in Oscar Whisky. Paddy Power's offer of refunding stakes if your horse is 2nd to Big Bucks almost makes Oscar Whisky a bet to nothing.
Recommended Bet: Oscar Whisky - 9/2* (Paddy Power)

4:00 - A typically open race. Chances are given to Gansey and Notus De La Tour, but I can see Holmood Legend repeating last year's win.
Recommended Bet: Holmwood Legend - 4pts @ 18 (Betfair)

4:40 - The amateur riders can make this race a bit of a lottery. They tend to go off to fast so hold up horses are preferred. The two I like are Fredo and Mostly Bob who are both decent prices, but if his jumping holds up I can't see Mostly Bob failing to get placed at least.
Recommended Bet: Mostly Bob - 2pts win @ 28 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 5.6 (Betfair)

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Wednesday 14 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival - Wednesday

Well yesterday was the perfect example of the benefits to be gained from shopping around and making the most of the concessions that bookies offer at the big meetings. On what would ordinarily have been a losing day I escaped, and even made a slight profit by getting my stake back from Paddy Power after Sprinter Sacre won the Arkle, and getting paid each way terms by Betfred/Tote on Billie Magern finishing 5th.

Summary: Bet - 24pts, Return - 24.8pts, Profit - 0.8pts
Overall Profit - 77.8pts

Todays race analysis as follows:

1:30 - One of the hardest races to call, with the 4 mile distance a great unknown for all. As such I have a lengthy shortlist incorporating Allee Garde, Blenheim Brook, Court Red Handed, Lively Baron and Our Island. Allee Garde looks the likeliest winner, but the others all offer each way value and one of them might improve enough to win.
Recommended Bet: Allee Garde - 4pts @ 8.6 (Betfair)

2:05 - Another race where I have a lengthy shortlist, this time including Cotton Mill, Make Your Mark, Monksland, Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux. Simonsig offers poor value, and preference is for the two Willie Mullins entrants, with Ruby Walsh tipping the scales in favour of his ride.
Recommended Bet: Sous Les Cieux - 4pts @ 7.6 (Betfair)

2:40 - Bobs Worth is one of my bets of the meeting, even with Grands Crus bypassing the Gold Cup to oppose him here. With improvement in his jumping I hope to see him staying on past his rivals to win up the hill in the final stretch.
Recommended Bet: Bobs Worth - 8pts @ 5.5 (Betfair)

3:20 - A race where I see the favourite and reigning champion, Sizing Europe, getting beat by either Big Zeb or Finians Rainbow. Both are decent value alternatives but I prefer the chances of the more experienced Big Zeb.  
Recommended Bet: Big Zeb - 7pts @ 6.6 (Betfair)

4:00 - A big field, and a shorlist made up of Act Of Kalanisi, Cape Dutch and Tenor Nivernais. Venetia Williams knows what it takes to win this race, and with the stable in such good form the longish odds on Tenor Nivernais make him the most attractive option.
Recommended Bet: Tenor Nivernais - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (Tote)

4:40 - An even more difficult race to call where you need to read into trainers intentions and horses potential, as the winner will almost definitely be much better than anything they will have shown on the racecourse as yet. Likely types include Bat Masterson, Dark And Dangerous and Edeyemi. Its a toss up between the three, but the 5lbs claim that young Brendan Powell gets puts Dark And Dangerous on a nice low weight, so I'll plump for him.
Recommended Bet: Dark And Dangerous - 1pt ew @ 25/1* (Tote)

5:15 - I have this between Moscow Mannon, Royal Guardsman and The New One, with preference for the Colin Tizzard horse.
Recommended Bet: Royal Guardsman - 3pts @ 9.8 (Betfair)

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Tuesday 13 March 2012

Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

Into the festival with the smallest of profits from last weekend's bets.

Summary: Bet - 12pts, Return - 13pts, Profit - 1pt
Overall Profit - 77pts

Today's race summary as follows:

1:30 - This appears a fairly wide open race and the two I like are Midnight Game and Montbazon with slight preference for the latter.
Recommended Bet: Montbazon - 5pts @ 9.2 (Betfair)

2:05 - Sprinter Sacre is a strong favourite, but I like the chances of Al Ferof and/or Cue Card beating him. It's a toss up between them, but at current prices Cue Card offers the value.
Recommended Bet: Cue Card - 4pts @ 7/1* (Paddy Power)

2:40 - A difficult race to call, but one which could provide a big price winner. I give Tullamore Dew and Fruity O'Rooney  good chances, but I can see Billie Magern outperforming its long odds.
Recommended Bet: Billie Magern - 2.5pts ew @ 33/1* (Tote)

3:20 - Hurricane Fly has a great shot at repeating last years win, but Binocular looks back to his best and offers a value alternative.
Recommended Bet: Binocular - 4pts @ 6.2 (Betfair)

4:00 - Hopefully there'll be no cock ups with horses taking the wrong course, but hopefully Garde Champetre can come good again and win this race for a 3rd time.
Recommended Bet: Garde Champetre - 4pts @ 10/1* (William Hill)

4:40 - Quevega looks a good thing, but I can't bring myself to bet odds on at Cheltenham. An alternative is Swincombe Flame, but she isn't quite a big enough each way price to my liking.
No Bet

5:15 - A typically trappy handicap, so we need to find some value. Ackertac could run well but slight preference is for Harpsy Cord, who fits the winners profile of running for the first time in a handicap chase.
Recommended Bet: Harpsy Cord - 1pt ew @ 20/1* (Tote)

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Saturday 10 March 2012

Sandown/ Wolverhampton - March 10

At last. Back to winning ways! Only slightly up, but every pick got placed, so theres hope for the big week to come.

Summary: Bet - 10pts, Return - 15pts, Profit - 5pts
Overall Profit - 76pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Sandown: Off The Ground - 2pts @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:20 Wolverhampton: Libys Dream - 0.5pt @ 20/1 (Coral)
2:40 Sandown: Richards Sundance - 2pts @ 12 (Betfair)
3:15 Sandown: Ted Spread - 4pts @ 4/1* (William Hill)
3:30 Wolverhampton: Licence To Till - 2pts @ 15 (Betfair)
3:50 Sandown: Taradrewe - 1pt @ 7/1* (William Hill) 

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Saturday 3 March 2012

Doncaster/ Newbury - March 3

Goodbye and good riddance to February. I should have gone into hibernation! Anyhow Cheltenham is on its way so its a good time to turn things round.

Bet - 18pts, Return - 2pts, Loss - 16pts
Overall Profit - 71pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Newbury: Imperial Circus - 1pt @ 14/1 (Tote)
2:20 Doncaster: Alderley Rover - 2pts @ 12/1 (Coral)
2:40 Newbury: Ouzbeck - 1pt @ 10/1* (William Hill)
3:10 Newbury: Aerial - 2pts @ 11/2* (Paddy Power)
3:25 Doncaster: West End Rocker - 3pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)
3:45 Newbury: Ebanour - 1pt @ 8/1* (William Hill)

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