Saturday 31 December 2011

Newbury/ Warwick - December 31

Unlucky with Giles Cross not lasting home in the Welsh National, on a blank day.

Summary: Bet - 13pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 13pts
Overall Profit - 101pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Newbury: Minella Class - 2pts @ 5/1* (Tote)
2:20 Warwick: Inga Bird - 1pt @ 6/1* (Tote)
2:35 Newbury: Leading Contender - 1pt @ 8/1* (William Hill)
2:50 Warwick: Not So Sure Dick - 1.5pt @ 8/1* (William Hill)
3:40 Newbury: Rigidity - 1pt @ 7/1* (William Hill)

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Tuesday 27 December 2011

Chepstow/ Leopardstown - December 27

A good day yesterday with 3 winners from 5 selections. Kauto Stars performance was even the sweeter for having my money behind him!

Summary: Bet - 18pts, Return - 44pts, Profit - 26pts
Overall Profit - 114pts

Todays bets as follows:
1:00 Chepstow: Monsieur Cadou - 2pts @ 9/2 (Coral)
1:30 Chepstow: Glenwood Knight - 2pts @ 10/1* (Tote)
2:10 Chepstow: Giles Cross - 6pts @ 13/2* (Tote)
3:05 Leopardstown: Aigle d'Or - 1.5pts ew @ 16/1* (Paddy Power)

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Monday 26 December 2011

Boxing Day

Merry Christmas one and all. Boxing Day brings the King George meeting, so lets hope for some festive cheer following last weekends blank.

Summary: Bet - 9pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 9pts
Overall Profit - 88pts

Todays Kempton analysis as follows:
1:25: Chances are given to That'lldoboy and Semi Colon, but slight preference is for Our Mick.
Recommendation: Our Mick - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:00: Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti are decent horses but Grands Cru looks a different class and with a clear round must win.
Recommendation: Grands Crus - 8pts @ 11/8* (Paddy Power) 
2:35: I suspect Binocular will overturn his defeat by Overturn, but the unexposed Rock on Ruby is chanced to beat both of them.
Recommendation: Rock On Ruby - 4pts @ 2/1* (William Hill)
3:10: A real 2 horse race, leaving us Kauto Star or Long Run. Call me sentimental but the longer odds offered on Kauto have persuaded me to back the older horse.
Recommendation: Kauto Star - 4pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)

Other Bet:
1:45 Wetherby: Sarando - 1pt @ 8/1* (William Hill)

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Saturday 17 December 2011

Ascot/Haydock - December 17

The impressive Grandouet provided a narrow profit on last Saturday's bets.

Summary: Bet - 12pts, Return - 13pts, Profit - 1pt
Overall Profit - 97pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:10 Haydock: Sir Tantallus Hawk - 1pt ew @ 16/1 (Coral)
2:45 Haydock: Whats Up Woody - 1pt @ 10/1* (Tote)
3:05 Ascot: Reve De Sivola - 3pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)
3:35 Ascot: Gibb River - 3pts @ 9/1* (Paddy Power)

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Saturday 10 December 2011

Cheltenham/Doncaster - December 10

A poor day yesterday continuing a bit of a slump which hopefully will start to be addressed today.

Summary: Bet - 16pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 0pts
Overall Profit - 96pts

Todays bets as follows:
1:20 Cheltenham: Takeroc - 1pt @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:30 Cheltenham: Ghizao - 6pts @ 9/1* (Paddy Power)
2:45 Doncaster: School For Scandal - 1pt @ 11/2* (Tote)
3:05 Cheltenham: Grandouet - 3pts @ 100/30* (Paddy Power)
3:20 Doncaster: Bai Zhu - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Friday 9 December 2011

Cheltenham - December 9

Off to Cheltenham today for an annual birthday jaunt with some pals, and will hopefully get back last week's losses.

Summary: Bet - 12pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 12pts
Overall Profit - 112pts

Today's Cheltenham bets as follows:
12:35: Tony Star - 2pts @ 7/1* (Paddy Power)
1:10: Rory Boy - 4pts @ 7/1* (William Hill) 
1:45: Mostly Bob - 2pts @ 13/2* (Ladbrokes)
2:20: Uncle Junior - 2pts @ 3/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:55: Pause and Clause - 6pts @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

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Saturday 3 December 2011

Aintree/ Sandown - December 3

Last weeks summary: Bet - 19pts, Return - 5.4pts, Loss - 13.6pts
Overall Profit - 124pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:10 Aintree: Always Waining - 4pts @ 11/1* (Tote)
2:30 Sandown: Enfant De Lune - 2pts @ 7/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Sandown: Kauto Stone - 3pts @ 3/1* (Tote)
3:20 Aintree: No Panic - 1pt win @ 30 (Betfair), 1pt place @ 8.2 (Betfair)
3:40 Sandown: Madison Du Berlais - 1pt @ 7/1* (Paddy Power)

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Saturday 26 November 2011

Newbury/Newcastle - November 26

Last week was a good week to limit bets with no winners, but we'll crank it back up a little today!

Summary: Bet - 4pts, Retuen - 0pts, Loss - 4pts
Overall Profit - 137.6pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Newbury: Dream Function - 4pts @ 11/2* (Tote)
2:35 Newbury: Pettifour - 3pts ew @ 16/1* (Paddy Power) 
3:10 Newbury: Aiteen Thirtythree - 4pts @ 8/1 (Coral)
3:30 Newcastle: The Hollinwell - 1pt ew @ 22/1 (Coral)
3:45 Newbury: Riguez Dancer - 1.5pts ew @ 22/1 (Coral)

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Saturday 19 November 2011

Ascot/ Haydock - November 19

A nice start to the jumps season last week has got me breaking the 100 points profit barrier for the first time. More of the same please!

Last Weekends Summary: Bet - 35pts, Return - 84pts, Profit - 49pts
Overall Profit - 141.6pts

Minimum stakes only this week, with bets as follows:
2:30 Haydock: Robinson Collonges - 1pt @ 7/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Haydock: Weird Al - 1pt @ 7/1* (Tote)
3:20 Ascot: Anquetta - 1pt @ 5/1* (Tote)
3:40 Haydock: Tamarinbleu - 1pt @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)

Sunday 13 November 2011

Paddy Power/ Cheltenham Weekend - Sunday

Todays bets as follows:

2:20 Cheltenham: Inspector Clouseau - 3pts ew @ 25/1* (Tote)
2:55 Cheltenham: Rangitoto - 1pt @ 5/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:15 Fontwell: Victors Serenade - 1pt @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:30 Cheltenham: Polisky - 1pt@ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)
4:00 Cheltenham: Salubrious - 1pt @ 5/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Saturday 12 November 2011

Cheltenham/ Paddy Power Weekend - Saturday

Todays bets as follows:
1:55 Cheltenham: Promising Anshan - 4pts @ 9/2* (William Hill)
2:35 Cheltenham: Great Endeavour - 6pts @ 12/1* (Tote) 
2:50 Lingfield: Five Star Junior - 2pts @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:10 Cheltenham: My Shamwari - 1pt @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:25 Wetherby: Empress Orchid - 1pt ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:40 Cheltenham: What A Warrior - 1pt ew @ 25/1* (William Hill)

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Friday 11 November 2011

Cheltenham/ Paddy Power Weekend - Friday

A fantasctic last weekend, with the woes of September becoming ever more distant. It's goodbye to the flat season, and time to concentrate on the jumps, where I am usually more successful, so lets hope thats the case this Winter too.

Summary: Bet - 58 pts, Return - 117.5pts, Profit - 59.5pts
Overall Profit - 92.6pts

Today's Cheltenham bets as follows:
1:10: Quattrocentro - 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Tote)
1:45: Crack Away Jack - 2pts @ 4/1 (Coral)
2:20: Intac - 2pts @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)
2:55: Flycorn - 0.5pt win @ 44 (Betfair) & 0.5pt place  @ 8 (Betfair)
3:30: Semi Colon - 1pt @ 9/1 (Tote)

Saturday 5 November 2011

Doncaster/ Wincanton - November 5

A good start to the Breeders Cup last night, picking 3 winners.

Summary: Bet - 34pts, Return - 62pts, Profit - 28pts
Overall Profit - 33.1pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:00 Doncaster: Valencha - 1pt @ 17.5 (Betfair)
2:20 Down Royal: Quito De La Roque - 2pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)
2:35 Doncaster: Ceilidh House - 2pts @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:10 Doncaster: Zuider Zee - 4pts @ 14/1* (William Hill)
3:20 Wincanton: The Minack - 2pts @ 9/2* (Ladbrokes)
3:40 Doncaster: Sirius Prospect - 1pt @ 11/2* (Ladbrokes)   

Already advised Breeders Cup bets for tonight:
5:20: Pleasant Prince - 2pts @ 20/1
6:02: Finale - 4pts @ 8/1
6:37: Big Drama - 8pts @ 7/2
7:21: Broken Dreams - 2pts ew @ 16/1
8:01: Caleb's Posse - 4pts @ 7/1
8:45: Midday - 8pts @ 11/2
9:25: Alpha - 2pts ew @ 16/1
10:07: Gio Ponti - 4pts @ 9/1
11:00: Flat Out - 8pts @ 13/2  

Tuesday 1 November 2011

Breeders Cup - Nov 4/5

A good decision to limit stakes last weekend, having drawn a blank.

Summary: Bet - 7pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 7pts
Overall Profit - 5.1pts

This weekend brings one of my highlights in the racing calendar. The Breeders Cup offers traditionally good betting value, as the bookies find it problematic to price up races where they don't have a great depth of knowledge. They tend to react quickly to any tips offered up in the racing media, so with 'The Weekender' out tomorrow likely to be the first offering to which they react, I have already studied the form and placed my bets as follows:

Juvenile Sprint
This is a new race at the meeting, so there is no past history to make judgements against. The formbook points to Secret Circle being a near certainty, albeit at prohibitive odds. Jake Mo provides possible each way value, but surely can't beat the favourite.
Bet: Secret Circle - 4pts @ evens (William Hill)

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Elusive Kate is a worthy favourite, but offers little value in a race that needs luck in running, and is likely to fall to the filly with the best finishing kick. Pure Gossip, Royal Bonnie and Karlovy Vary are potential upset material, but I like the look of Stephanie's Kitten.
Bet: Stephanie's Kitten - 2pts @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Filly & Mares Sprint
Pomeroys Pistol is a 3 year old on the upgrade with a win already against her elders. Switch could give her the most opposition.
Bet: Pomeroys Pistol - 4pts @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Juvenile Fillies
My Miss Aurelia is the favourite, and rightly so. The only possible danger I see is Weemissfrankie.
Bet: My Miss Aurelia - 8pts @ 5/2* (Paddy Power)

Filly & Mares Turf
Stacelita, Nahrain and Announce are all potential winners, but there looks to be each way value in the overpriced Harmonious.
Bet: Harmonious - 4pts ew @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

Ladies Classic
Another race with a strong and justifiable favourite in Plum Pretty. It's Tricky could follow her home.
Bet: Plum Pretty - 8pts @ 5/2 (Coral)

Marathon
This looks wide open, and could provide a shock. Old rivals Eldaafer, Giant Oak and AU Miner reoppose, while the unexposed Cease could be anything. Brigantin is the class in the race but will he go on dirt? I can see Harrison' Cave plugging on for a place at decent odds, but at equally juicy odds Pleasant Prince could stay on and win.
Bet: Pleasant Prince - 2pts @ 20/1 (Coral)

Juvenile Turf
Another difficult race to handicap, with chances given to Animal Spirits, Shkspeare Shaliyah, Wrote and Farraaj. However the Todd Pletcher trained Finale looks the most likely winner to me.
Bet: Finale - 4pts @ 8/1 (Coral)

Sprint
A small field for this race so there shouldn't bee too many hard luck stories. Big Drama won last year when he had a light campaign. It looks like the plan is the same this year and I can't find a likely alternative.
Bet: Big Drama - 8pts @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Turf Sprint
A bit of a lottery where luck in running will play a part. Plenty have chances, and there is every chance a long shot will triumph. Possibles are Broken Dreams, Country Day, Great Attack, Perfect Officer and Regally Ready. Jockeyship will be crucial and Broken Dreams is preferred with Garret Gomez in the saddle.
Bet: Broken Dreams - 2pts ew @ 16/1 (Tote)

Dirt Mile
Wilburn beat Shackleford and Caleb's Posse last time out, but the latters previous win over Uncle Mo stands out, and he looks a value bet.
Bet: Caleb's Posse - 4pts @ 7/1 (William Hill)

Turf
This should be a European 1-2-3. Win wise I prefer the chances of Midday and Sea Moon, who bypassed the Arc, and I rate St Nicholas Abbey and Sarafina as more likely to fill out the places. Slight preference is for Midday given her impressive previous Breeders Cup record.
Bet: Midday - 8pts @ 11/2 (Skybet)

Juvenile
Union Rags looks another good favourite, while Hansen could be anything. However Alpha, ridden by Garret Gomez, is good value to improve and possibly beat the other two.
Bet: Alpha - 2pts ew @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Mile
This is supposed to be all about Goldikova. I don't like her inside draw though and Peslier might need to be at his best to avoid a troubled run, which means there is no value in betting her. There are a number of front running types in this, which means the likelihood of it being set up for a late runner to win. Byword and Gio Ponti are the most likely to profit, and I take the latter to make amends for finishing second to Goldikova last year.
Bet: Gio Ponti - 4pts @ 9/1 (Skybet)

Classic
So You Think could win this, but doubts about his adaptability to the dirt surface mean there is no value in his odds. I don't think the favourite, Uncle Mo will see out the distance at this level, and the filly, Havre De Grace is a better prospect. That said Flat Out looks a good thing to me, particularly given the good reports of his recent workouts at the track.
Bet: Flat Out - 8pts @ 13/2 (Tote)   

Saturday 29 October 2011

Ascot/Newmarket/Wetherby - October 29

A good day last week with a couple of Richard Hannon 2 year olds winning at decent prices to get me back in profit.

Summary: Bet - 14pts, Return - 58pts, Profit - 44pts
Overall Profit - 12.1pts

Next week brings the Breeders Cup which tends to be a big betting event for me, so we'll keep todays bets to minimal stakes in anticipation of that.

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Newmarket: Confront - 1pt @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:30 Ascot: Panjo Bere - 1pt @ 16/1 (Skybet)
2:45 Wetherby: Cantlow - 1pt @ 11/1* (William Hill)
3:00 Ascot: Tarkari - 1pt ew @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)
3:20 Wetherby: Time For Rupert - 1pt @ 4/1* (William Hill)
3:40 Ascot: Niche Market - 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (Coral)

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Saturday 22 October 2011

Doncaster/Newbury - October 22

Last Week's Summary: Bet - 20pts, Return - 17pts, Loss - 3pts
Overall Loss - 31.9pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:00 Doncaster: Dreamacha - 2pts@ 17.5 (Betfait)
2:15 Newbury: Tell Dad - 4pts @ 10 (Betfair)
2:30 Doncaster: Gusto - 2pts @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:45 Newbury: Al Kazeem - 4pts @ 100/30* (William Hill)
3:15 Newbury: Way Too Hot - 1pt @ 9.8 (Betfair)
3:45 Newbury: Glencadam Gold - 0.5pt ew @ 20/1* (William Hill)

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Saturday 15 October 2011

Champions Day October 15

Today is all about Frankel. Can't see beyond him, but the odds will naturally be restrictive so it will be one to watch and not bet on. Dick Turpin seems a big each way price at 25/1, but has no chance of winning unless something disastrous happens to Frankel.

Summary: Bet - 23pts, Return - 14pts, Loss - 9pts
Overall Loss - 28.9pts

Todays selections as follows:
1:50 Ascot: Motrice - 3pts @ 14/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:05 Cheltenham: Catcherinscratcher - 1pt @ 7/2* (William Hill)
2:20 Catterick: See Clearly - 1pt @ 18 (Betfair)
2:25 Ascot: Moonlight Cloud - 4pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)
2:40 Cheltenham: Edgbriar - 1pt @ 13/2 (Tote)
2:55 Catterick: Verinco - 2pts @ 11/2* (William Hill)
3:00 Ascot: Gertrude Bell - 2pts @ 15 (Betfair)
3:50 Cheltenham: Balthazar King - 1pt @ 3/1 (Tote)
3:25 Kelso: Captain Americo - 1pt @ 4/1* (Ladbrokes)
4:10 Ascot: Nataniel - 4pts @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Saturday 8 October 2011

Newmarket/York - October 8

First winning weekend for a while last week, despite a poor Arc day.

Summary: Bet - 45pts, Return - 50pts, Profit - 5pts
Overall Loss - 19.9pts

Todays bets as follows:
2:05 Newmarket: Across The Rhine - 2pts ew @ 25/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:20 York: Eland Ally - 1pt @ 13/2* (Ladbrokes)
2:35 Newmarket: Rebellious Guest - 4pts @ 11/1 (Tote)
2:50 York: Sadeeks Song - 2pts @ 4/1 (Coral)
3:10 Newmarket: Red Duke - 4pts @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:25 York: Bannock - 2pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)
3:50 Newmarket: Keys - 4pts @ 15/1* (William Hill)
4:05 York: Kaldoun Kingdom - 1pt ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Sunday 2 October 2011

Arc Weekend - Sunday

Todays Longchamp bets as follows:

1210 : Ley Hunter - 4pts @ 4/1 (Coral)
1245: Mar Adentro - 2pts win @ 36 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 8 (Betfair)
230: Marchand D'or - 2pts ew @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
315: Galikova - 4pts @ 8/1 (William Hill)
445: Epic Love - 4pts @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)

Saturday 1 October 2011

Arc Weekend - Saturday

Thank God September is over! That was one of the worse months I can remember, with all Glorious Goodwood's good work undone.

Summary: Bet - 14pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 14pts
Overall Loss - 24.9pts

Today's picks as follows:
2:05 Ascot: My Propeller - 3pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:25 Newmarket: Coplow - 1pt @ 14?1* (William Hill)
3:00 Newmarket: Coupe De Ville - 2pts @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:15 Ascot: Desert Poppy - 2pts @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
3:15 Longchamp: Zinabaa - 4pts @ 14/1 (Skybet)
3:35 Newmarket: Warlu Way - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:50 Ascot: Imperial Guest - 2pts ew @ 18/1 (Coral)
4:00 Redcar: Excelette - 2pts ew @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
4:25 Longchamp: Byword - 4pts @ 9/2* (William Hill)

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Saturday 24 September 2011

Newmarket/Market Rasen/Haydock/Chester - September 24

Todays selections as follows:
205 Newmarket: Wrote - 2pts @ 7/2* (william Hill)
220 Market Rasen: Tatispout - 1pt @ 17/2* (William Hill)
250 Market Rasen: Mad Moose - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)
310 Newmarket: Alanza - 4pts @ 7/2* (william Hill)
320 Haydock: Cheveton - 2pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
350 Newmarket: Albaqaa - 1pt ew @ 18/1 (Tote)
410 Chester: Swift Alhaarth - 2pts @ 11/2* (Ladbrokes)

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Friday 23 September 2011

Newmarket/Haydock - September 23

Poor run continues!

Summary: Bet - 18pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 18pts
Overall Loss - 10.9pts

Todays bets as follows:
115 Newmarket:: Rakasa - 1pt @ 5/1 (Coral)
150 Newmarket: Soorah - 1pt @ 13/2* (Ladbrokes)
205 Haydock: Alakhan - 2pts @ 10 (Betfair)
225 Newmarket: Libranno - 4pts @ 8.6 (Betfair)

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Saturday 17 September 2011

Ayr/Newbury/Newmarket - September 17

Last two days betting summary: Bet 32 pts, Return - 8pts, Loss - 24pts
Overall - 7.1pts

Todays bets as follows:

2:15 Ayr: Elusive Prince - 1pt ew @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
2:30 Newbury: B Fifty Two - 4pts @ 12/1 (Coral)
2:45 Ayr: Kune Kune - 2pts @ 9/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Newbury: Beaumonts Party - 4pts @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:20 Ayr: Pepper Lane - 3pts @ 14/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:30 Newmarket: Montparnasse - 1pt @ 12/1* (william Hill) 
3:40 Newbury: Katla - 3pts @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Saturday 10 September 2011

St Leger - Saturday

Todays selections as followd:
2:20 Goodwood: Nationalism - 2pts @ 6/1 (Coral)
2:35 Doncaster: Joe Packet - 2pts @ 14/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:50 Goodwood: Monsieur Chevalier - 1pt @ 7/1 (Coral)
3:10 Doncaster: Blue Bunting - 6pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)
3:30 Chester: Berling - 2pts @ 7/2* (Tote)
3:45 Doncaster: Crown Counsel - 1pt ew @ 20/1 (Skybet)
3:50 Curragh: Fame And Glory - 8pts @ 5/6* (William Hill) 

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Friday 9 September 2011

Doncaster St Leger - Friday

Its a little ironic that William Hills' decision to limit my bets has coincided with a losing spell, but hopefully their trust in my punting will be proved to be just in the immediate and long term!

Summary: Bet - 7, Return - 0, Loss - 7pts
Overall Profit - 31.1pts

Todays bets at Donceaster as follows:
1:25 - My Propeller - 3pts @ 6.6 (Coral)
1:55 - Itlaaq - 3pts @ 14 (Betfair)
2:25 - Motrice - 3pts @ 9/2* (William Hill)

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Thursday 8 September 2011

Doncaster St Leger - Thursday

A good holiday has me refreshed after a poor York meeting. Despite that William Hill have joined Betfred in restricting my online bets, which shows overall I can't be doing too badly. Although slightly inconvenient, betting with those particular firms is still feasible, except it entails a trip away from the computer and out to one of their betting shops instead. Of course there is always Betfair, where most of the best odds offered by the conventional bookies can at least be matched.

Summary: Bet - 16pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 16pts
Overall Profit - 38.1pts 

Todays bets on TV races at Doncaster as follows:

1:25 - Amis Reunis - 2pts @ 9/1 (Coral)
1:55 - Chachamaidee - 1pt @ 7/2* (Ladbrokes)
2:25 - Boris Grigoriev - 0.5pt win @ 36 (Betfair), 0.5pt place @ 9.4 (Betfair)
3:00 - Sense Of Purpose - 3pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)

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Saturday 20 August 2011

York Ebor - Saturday

If only I'd gone with Margot Did! What ifs dont make a profit though, so today is the last chance to make the York meeting a profitable one.

Summary: Bet - 13pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 13pts
Overall Profit - 54.1pts

Todays race analysis as follows:

2:00 I can see Doncaster Rover going close, but I can see Yaa Wayl repeating last year's victory.
Recommended Bet: Yaa Wayl - 4pts @ 7/1* (Ladbrokes)

2:35 I have a big shortlist here including Parlour Games, Kinyras, Communicator, Motivado, Thubian and Western Prize, and I still might not have named the winner.
Recommended Bet: Communicator - 2pts @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:05 Bergo could run into a place at a big price, but I'm taking Harris Tweed to hopefully control an easy pace from the front and last home for the win.
Recommended Bet: Harris Tweed - 4pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)

3:40 Got to look for an each way shot here. I was tempted by Sirvino, but I think Cill Rialaig might have been laid out for this and has to be my pick.
Recommended Bet: Cill Rialaig - 2pts ew @ 22/1* (William Hill)

Other selection from televised races as follows:
2:15 Sandown - Rock The Stars - 1pt ew @ 28/1 (Coral)

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Please note I am on holiday for the next 2 weeks, so there will be no more blogs until the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

Friday 19 August 2011

York Ebor - Friday

Blue Bunting brought me back level yesterday, so here's hoping that's the start of good things to come at York.

Summary: Bet - 16pts, Return - 16pts
Overall Profit - 67.1pts

Todays race analysis as follows:

2:00 The usual wide open handicap to start with. I'll win one soon! Right Step will hopefully be held up for a late run at winning and seems a value each way bet.
Recommended Bet: Right Step - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (William Hill)

2:30 Lilbourne Lad looks the class of the race and is the pick to win. Burwaaz could run well if staying the 6 furlongs.
Recommended Bet: Lilbourne Lad - 2pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)

3:05 Dux Scholar is a strong fancy here, and I can see stablemate Tazahum chasing him home.
Recommended Bet: Dux Scholar - 4pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)

3:40 I can see Wizz Kid and Margot Did running well at decent odds, but I think this is Bated Breath's time to win a Group sprint.
Recommended Bet: Bated Breath - 3pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)

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Thursday 18 August 2011

York Ebor - Thursday

Not a great start to the meeting yesterday. Midday would have probably won on faster ground, while I would have been tempted to select Sea Moon if I had known its SP had been 11/2.

Summary: Bet - 9pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 9pts
Overall Profit - 67.1pts
Todays race analysis as follows:

2:00 Crown Dependency looks a solid favourite, but I don't fancy the odds of 2/1 in a 20 runner race of 2 year olds. Roger Sez looks a nice each way alternative.
Recommended Bet: Roger Sez - 2pts win @ 22 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 5.7 (Betfair)

2:30 Shumoos might come good again, but I like the look of the Irish invador, Fire Lily.
Recommended Bet: Fire Lily - 4pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:05 Markazzi could have a big chance, although the draw is slightly off putting. At a big price, Masked Dance is offered as an alternative.
Recommended Bet: Masked Dance - 2pts win @ 50 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 9 (Betfair)

3:45 Vita Nova and Banimpre have chances, but I can't get away from Blue Bunting's classic form, which should prove too good.
Recommended Bet: Blue Bunting - 4pts @ 3/1* (William Hill)

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Wednesday 17 August 2011

York Ebor - Wednesday

Pimpernel proved a nice winner on Saturday, guaranteeing a profit on the day.

Summary: Bet - 10pts, Return - 16.05pts, Profit - 6.05pts
Overall Profit - 76.1pts

Onto York this week. Todays race analysis as follows:

2:00 A tricky start with chances given to Kanaf, Ritual and Face The Problem. Minimum stakes only!
Recommended Bet: Ritual - 1pt @ 10 (Betfair)

2:30 Another difficult one. I like the unexposed Moon Pearl and Zumbi who could go well at decent odds. A toss up really but slight preference for the latter.
Recommended Bet: Zumbi - 2pts @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:05 Seville has a favourites chance but is no value, and Sea Moon could be an improver, but is also at unattractive odds. Hunters Light could run well at good odds and is my pick.
Recommended Bet: Hunters Light - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Tote)

3:40 Twice Over looks past his best and Await The Dawn has it to prove. Midday looks a solid bet.
Recommended Bet: Midday - 4pts @ 9/4* (William Hill)

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Saturday 13 August 2011

Newbury/Newmarket/Ripon - August 13th

One winner and a non runner last week, producing a slight loss.

Summary: Bet - 7pts, Return - 6pts, Loss - 1pt
Overall Profit - 70.05pts
Another day for minimal stakes today, but bets as follows:
2:00 Newbury: Saint Pierre - 1pt @ 11/1 (Coral)
2:15 Newmarket: Pimpernel - 2pts @ 8.4 (Betfair)
2:30 Newbury: Leqqaa - 1pt @ 7/2* (William Hill)
2:45 Newmarket: Dens Gift - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Newbury: Times Up - 1pt @ 5/1* (William Hill)
3:20 Newmarket: Blanche Dubawi - 1pt @ 8.4 (Coral)
3:30 Ripon: Fathsta - 1pt @ 12/1 (William Hill)
3:40 Newbury: The Cheka - 1pt @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

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Saturday 6 August 2011

Ascot/Haydock/Newmarket - August 6th

Had to take a bit of a hit on the last day of Goodwood, but I'll happily take such a loss if it is preceded by 4 winning days.

Summary: Bet - 24pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 24pts
Overall Profit - 71.05pts
Back to regular Saturday fayre today. Bets as follows:

2:00 Ascot: Sohraab - 1pt @ 10/1* (William Hill)
2:15 Haydock: Never Forget - 1pt ew @ 28/1* (Tote)
2:30 Ascot: Ivan Vasilevich - 1pt @ 9/1 (Coral)
2:45 Haydock: Class Is Class - 1pt @ 4/1* (William Hill)
3:00 Ascot: Rock A Doodle Doo - 1pt @ 9/2* (William Hill)
3:35 Ascot: Googlette - 0.5pt ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)

Saturday 30 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood - Saturday

Well just when it looked like I was about to have a losing day, up popped Catfish in the lucky last to put me ahead again. The SP of 8/1 also showed the value of getting early prices, which in this instance doubled the pay out.

Summary: Bet - 30pts, Return - 44pts, Profit - 14pts
Overall Profit - 99.05pts

Race analysis for the final day of the festival as follows:

2:05 - A difficult start again. One of the Kevin Ryan runners could pop up at a decent price, but the one that stands out to me is Novellen Lad.
Recommended Bet: Novellen Lad - 6pts @ 14/1* (William Hill)

2:35 - Verdant is respected, while Sabotage could well outperform its long odds, but Investissement's course and distance win is the persuasive factor that divides the three of them.
Recommended Bet: Investissement - 4pts @ 12/1* (William Hill)

3:10 - A match between Midday and Snow Fairy. Preference is for Midday but the present odds are too restrictive to tempt a bet.
No Bet

3:45 - A low draw looks favourable, and the huge field means we want to get a decent price on any selection. The three that fit that scenario that have a squeak are Crown Choice, Mon Cadeaux and Global City. When do you get to bet Frankie at 40-1? This is it!
Recommended Bet: Global City - 3pts ew @ 40/1 (Paddy Power)

4:20 - Sports Section is my fancy here, but again the odds presently available are too restrictive.
No Bet

4:55 - The Brian Meehan stadium are firing at the moment and it looks like he has another likely 2 year old here.
Recommended Bet: Safari Storm - 3pts @ 8/1* (Tote)

5:35 - Henry Cecil's Frankel has been the star of the show this week and I fancy the trainer to have the last winner as the meeting bows out, in Diescentric.
Recommended Bet: Diescentric - 2pts @ 12/1* (William Hill)    

Other TV races:
2:20 Newmarket: Majestic Dream - 2pts @ 10/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:50 Newmarket: Ballyea - 1pt @ 16/1 (Coral)

Friday 29 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood - Friday

Three great days running now with another two winners yesterday and a long priced placed horse too. Is four winning days too much to hope for? Let's find out!
Summary: Bet - 39pts, Return - 73.65pts, Profit - 34.65pts
Overall Profit - 85.05pts

Todays race analysis as follows:

2:00 - A difficult start to the card. Redwood has a favourites chance, and I could probably see Drunken Sailor running well too. However Campanologist is a huge price and has to be backed to return to form today.
Recommended Bet: Campanologist - 6pts @ 14/1 (Coral)

2:35 - Western Aristocrat should win if adapting to the extra furlong, but I also give chances to Neebras and Questioning, so there is little value at its current short odds.
No Bet

3:10 - Sagramor's trainer was desperate to get him in this race, which he has just done by the skin of his teeth. The low draw is an added bonus. Of the others Cai Shen is a good each way prospect.
Recommended Bet: Sagramor - 6pts @ 13/2* (William Hill)

3:45 - Hannon has another favoured 2 year old in Harbour Watch and I wouldn't discount his second string, Eureka, either. However Saigon is a big price, probably because its from a small yard, and has to be backed.
Recommended Bet: Saigon - 6pts @ 9/1* (William Hill)

4:20 - I am torn here between Glee and West Leake Hare who I find difficult to split. On the basis of its low draw I'll plump for Glee.
Recommended Bet: Glee - 2pts @ 7/1* (Tote)

4:50 - If Memory could be guaranteed to leave the stalls then she would probably be my pick, but that is no certainty. Dever Dream looks a likely alternative.
Recommended Bet: Dever Dream - 6pts @ 17/2 (Coral)

5:25 - I like the look of Catfish, who is available at fancy odds, and has a nice low draw to benefit from.
Recommended Bet: Catfish - 2pts ew @ 16/1 (Skybet)

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Thursday 28 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood - Thursday

Well thats more like it! If Goodwood goes on like this it will quickly become my favourite festival, as almost on its own it has transformed my fortunes within its first 2 days. Lets hope the remainder of the festival continues in the same manner, and today we'll look to play up some of our winnings.
Summary: Bet - 16pts, Return - 76pts, Profit - 50pts
Overall Profit - 50.4pts
Todays analysis as follows:

2:15 - Again I like the Johnston/De Sousa combination here and Oceanway looks a good bet. Best alternatives are Labarinto and Boogie Shoes.
Recommended Bet: Oceanway - 6pts @ 11/1* (William Hill)

2:45 - Amour Propre looks the only one that I could possibly seeing beat Masamah who is my nap of the day.
Recommended Bet: Masamah - 8pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)

3:15 - Opinion Poll definitely has a shout here as does Red Cadeaux, but Manighar has looked like a probable winner of one of our big long distance races for a while now and I think today will be the day.
Recommended Bet: Manighar - 6pts @ 6/1* (William Hill)

3:45 - Wild Coco could be anything, but looks too short in the betting, which leaves me to decide between Field Of Miracles and Shankradeh. With the trainer of the former expressing a few doubts about the ground I'll plump for the French invador.
Recommended Bet: Shankaredeh - 6pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)

4:20 - The previous two days 2 year old maidens have gone to previously unraced types and I favour the same today.The Hannon horses, Santarini and Star of Bombay are fancied but at a big price I'll go for Amber Silk.
Recommended Bet: Amber Silk - 2pts win @ 35 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 11 (Betfair)

4:55 - This looks a match between Dimension and Tuscania. The latter is presently the longer odds, and therefore the better value.
Recommended Bet: Tuscania - 4pts @ 7/1* (Tote) 

5:25 - Another race where I see two possible winners, namely Pavana and Kinyras. I slightly prefer Kinyras, but will keep stakes to a minimum.
Recommended Bet: Kinyras - 1pt @ 11/2* (Tote)

4:50 Galway - The big race at Galway, the Guinness Handicap Hurdle also offers a decent betting opportunity now that the reserve Princeton Plains has got in the race, with Redera being my pick until then.
Recommended Bet: Princeton Plains - 2pts win @ 32 (Betfair), 2pts place @  6 (Betfair)

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Wednesday 27 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood - Wednesday

Well that's a bit more like it! Handicapped all yesterdays races fairly well, and am now back in profit, albeit only minimally. It could have been even better if Strong Suit had gone out a little in the betting, but nevermind, onwards and upwards hopefully.

Summary: Bet - 17pts, Return - 40.5pts, Profit - 23.5pts
Overall Profit - 0.4pts

Race analysis for day 2 as follows:
2:00 - Another big field handicap to start off. The Johnston/De Sousa combination looked good yesterday and Exemplary could run well, but I'm going for Cosimo De Medici whose late running style will hopefully be suited to the extreme distance of the race.
Recommended Bet: Cosimo De Medici - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (William Hill)

2:35 - This looks a match to me between Red Duke and Chandlery who reoppose after a win for the former. Chandlery now has a weight pull, but I get the feeling Red Duke might pull out more to triumph again. 11/4 is best price at present, and any bet will be dependent on 3/1 being available later.
Recomended Bet: Red Duke - 4pts (only if SP is 3/1 or higher)

3:10 - What a race! Canford Cliffs is top class, but I get the feeling Frankel is extra special, and could be one of the all time greats, so I believe Frankel will win. However the odds make a bet unfeasible.
No Bet

3:45 - I can see Tanfeeth and Watercourse being thereabouts but Whiplash Willie is on the upgrade and looks a good thing at the odds.
Recommended Bet: Whiplash Willie - 6pts @ 9/1* (William Hill)

4:20 - I don't fancy any of the horses who have already raced, which leaves me torn between Deduction and Rakasa. My slight preference is for the Godolphin runner.
Recommended Bet: Rakasa - 2pts @ 7/1 (Coral)

4:55 - I have a shortlist of Common Touch, Shamandar and Zenella. Shamandar looks to have slightly more scope for improvement and has the best jockey on board.
Recommended Bet: Shamandar - 2pts @ 15/2* (William Hill)

5:30 - Blessed Biata looks to have a big chance here for its in form yard, and I can see a quick double for the Haggas/Moore combination.
Recommended Bet: Blessed Biata - 2pts @ 7/1* (Tote) 

5:25 Galway - The big race in Ireland is worth a look too. I have it between the John Kiely trained pair, Head Of The Posse and Wise Old Owl. It looks like there has already been some money for the latter, so that is probably the one to go with.
Recommended Bet: Wise Old Owl - 2pts @ 11/1* (Ladbrokes)

Tuesday 26 July 2011

Glorious Goodwood - Tuesday

Only 1 winner again on Saturday. Onto Glorious Goodwood now which offers a catalogue of historical races to judge likely types to step up to the plate on the big occasion.

Summary: Bet - 13pts, Return - 11pts, Loss - 2pts
Overall Loss - 23.1pts

Todays Goodwood analysis as follows:
2:00 - A nice big field handicap to start. Forte Dei Marni looks to have a good shout, but Jutland looks overpriced and is from a yard that regularly produce winners of this type of race.
Recommended Bet: Jutland - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (William Hill)

2:30 - Fiorente looks a good thing, but there is no value at the odds available. I can see Highland Castle outperforming its odds, but maybe not enough to beat the favourite.
No Bet

3:10 - I like Strong Suit here, but would like at least odds of 3/1. Presently it is 11/4 at best.
Recommended Bet: Strong Suit - 8pts (SP if 3/1 or higher, otherwise no bet)

3:45 - Requinto looks to have a good chance but the draw could prove problematic, and Vocational looks to provide a great value bet.
Recommended Bet: Vocational - 8pts @ 12/1* (William Hill)

4:20 - Sequoia stands out to me of those that have already raced. With no unraced types winning this race in the previous 10 years I'm prepared to strike a line through their chances.
Recommended Bet: Sequoia - 2pts @ 100/30* (Ladbrokes)

4:50 - Another wide open handicap. Kajima and Veroon could provide each way value, but I'll keep stakes to the minimum for this and plump for Guest Book.
Recommended Bet: Guest Book - 1pt @ 11/1* (William Hill)

5:25 - Another tough handicap to finish, but I like the chances of the top weighted Secret Asset to come through and run well.
Recommended Bet: Secret Asset - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (William Hill)

Saturday 23 July 2011

Ascot/Newmarket/York - July 23rd

A little better last week, but could do with finding a nice priced winner to provide some ammunition for Glorious Goodwood next week.

Summary: Bet - 9pts, Return - 11.75pts, Profit - 2.75pts
Overall Loss - 21.1pts

Today's bets as follows:
2:00 York: Rent Free - 2pts @ 14/1* (William Hill)
2:15: Newmarket: Club Oceanic - 2pts @ 5/1 (Coral)
2:30 York: Creme Anglaise - 1pt @ 8/1 (Coral)
2:45 Newmarket: Ishbelle - 1pt @ 7/1* (William Hill)
3:05 York: Class Is Class - 1pt @ 9/2* (Ladbrokes) 
3:20 Newmarket: Cinderkamp - 1pt @ 7/1 (Coral)
3:40 York: Fathsta - 1pt @ 10/1* (William Hill)
3:50 Ascot: Leviathan - 2pts ew @ 16/1 (Coral)

Saturday 16 July 2011

Market Rasen/Newbury/Newmarket - July 16th

Poor day last Saturday, so will hopefully turn the tide today.

Summary: Bet - 19pts, Return - 0pts, Loss - 19pts
Overall Loss - 23.85pts

Only minimal stakes today, with doubts surrounding the effect of the forecast rain on generally good/firm ground. Bets as follows:

2:05 Market Rasen: Laterly - 2pts @ 14 (Betfair)
2:20 Newbury: Deacon Blues - 1pt @ 3/1* (William Hill)
2:55 Newbury: Belle Royale - 1pt @ 11 (Betfair)
3:10 Newmarket: Audemar - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Coral) 
3:30 Newbury: Mention - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Coral)
3:45 Market Rasen: Pilgrims Lane - 1pt win @ 30, 1pt place @ 6 (Betfair)

Saturday 9 July 2011

Newmarket/York - July 9th

Back in the game courtsey of Coeus yesterday, and with any luck Dever Dream could have followed up too.

Result over the last 2 days as follows:
Summary: Bet - 19pts, Return - 26pts, Profit - 7pts
Overall Loss - 4.85pts

Some nice racing on offer today, with decent sized fields offering good value if we can find it. Today's bets as follows:
2:05 York: Doctor Parkes - 1pt ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:20 Newmarket: Commissar - 2pts @ 12/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:40 York: Theology - 2pts @ 12/1* (Coral)
2:55 Newmarket: Angels Pursuit - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (Coral)
3:15 York: Beachfire - 4pts @ 10/1* (Coral)
3:35 Newmarket: Star Witness - 3pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:55 York: Capital Attraction - 1pt ew @ 18/1* (William Hill)
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Friday 8 July 2011

Newmarket/York - July 8th

My little cold spell continues, but onwards and upwards (hopefully). Today's bets as follows:

1:20 Newmarket: Admirable Spirit - 1pt @ 16/1* (Coral)
1:50 Newmarket: Coues - 2pts @  12/1* (Wiliam Hill)
2:25 Newmarket: My Propeller - 2pts @ 5/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:35 York: Dever Dream - 2pts @ 8.2 (Betfair)
3:00 Newmarket: Joviality - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Coral)
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Thursday 7 July 2011

Newmarket - July 7th

A nice winner to start the day last Saturday, but unfortunately couldn't back it up with more of the same.

Summary: Bet - 13pts, Return - 14pts - Profit - 1pt
Overall Loss - 11.85pts 

Newmarket's July Meeting starts today and fancies as follows:
1:50 Newmarket: Church Music - 4pts @ 11/2* (William Hill)
2:25 Newmarket: Glencadam Gold - 2pts ew @ 25/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:00 Newmarket: Campanologist - 2pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)
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Saturday 2 July 2011

Haydock/Sandown - July 2nd

Poor weekend last week putting me into the red after an ok Royal Ascot.

Summary: Bet - 14pts, Return - 0 pts, Loss - 14pts

Overall Loss - 12.85pts

Can't decide between So You Think and Workforce in today's big race so no bet there, but remaining bets today as follows:
2:00 Sandown: Night Carnation - 2pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
2:15 Haydock: Reflect - 1pt @ 8/1 (William Hill)
2:35 Sandown: Start Right - 4pts @ 8.2 (Betfair)
3:25 Haydock: Sharaayeen - 4pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)
3:40 Sandown: Sentry Duty - 2pts @ 9/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Sunday 26 June 2011

Irish Derby

Poor day yesterday. At a price I think Memphis Tennessee could win from the front if he can do so with a little more restraint than in the Epsom Derby.

Recommendation: Memphis Tennessee - 4pts @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

Saturday 25 June 2011

Newcastle/Newmarket - June 25th

Not a bad result last Saturday. Maybe turned out to be the good thing I expected it to be. Was a little disappointed with the ride Elyaadi got in the last, when I felt he would have won if the jockey hadn't been so keen to get him to the front as soon as they hit the straight.

Summary: Bet 35pts - Return - 43.33pts - Profit - 8.33pts

Overall Profit - 1.15pts

No time to provide any analysis of tips, but todays TV race picks are as follows:

2:30 Newcastle: My Kingdom - 1pt ew @ 25/1* Ladbrokes)
2:45 Newmarket: Verdant - 2pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:00 Curragh: Somasach - 1pt @ 6/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Newcastle: English Summer - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:20 Newmarket: Kakatosi - 2pts win @ 38 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 8.8 (Betfair)
3:40 Newcastle: Vito Volterra - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Saturday 18 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Saturday

Worst day of the meeting yesterday, with the rain making punting a little more difficult.

Summary: Bet 26pts - Return - 10pts - Loss - 16pts

Overall Loss - 7.18pts

Todays bets as follows:

2:30 Chesham Stakes
I've had this as a one horse race, but the rain seems to have brought out a few doubters into Maybe's chances. Hopefully that results in longer starting odds.

Recommendation: Maybe - 8pts @ 7/4* (Coral)

3:05 Hardwicke Stakes
I can see an upset here and its a toss up between Laaheb and Campanologist. Campanologist is the slightly longer odds at present, so that's who I'll back.

Recommendation: Campanologist - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes 
As per usual this looks ultra competitive and I have a long list of potential winners, namely Amico Fritz, Bated Breath, Kingsgate Native, Star Witness and Bewitched. I've just a sneaky feeling Kingsgate Native could put up a big run.

Recommendation: Kingsgate Native - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (William Hill)

4:25 Wokingham Stakes
Another minefield, but the 3 who I think offer the best value are Macs Power, Imperial Guest and Nasri, with slight preference for the latter.

Recommendation: Nasri - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (William Hill)

5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
I think Awsaal could run well at a big price, but the more I look at Taqleed the more I think he has been layed out to win this race.

Recommendation: Taqleed - 2pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The final race of the meet and I can only see Elyaadi triumphing.

Recommendation: Elyaadi - 4pts @ 7/2* (Ladbrokes)

Other Televised Races
2:05 Newmarket: Johnny Castle - 1pt @ 100/30* (William Hill)
2:35 Newmarket: Bunce - 1pt @ 10/1* (William Hill)
3:10 Newmarket: Tameen - 1pt @ 11/2* (William Hill)
3:40 Newmarket: Coeus - 1pt @ 11/2* (William Hill)
2:50 Ayr: Mariachi Man - 2pts @ 4/1 (Tote)
3:25 Ayr: The Nifty Fox - 2pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)
3:20 Redcar: Frognal - 1pt @ 3/1* (William Hill)

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Friday 17 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Friday

Another case of what might have been yesterday in terms of a big win in regards of Field of Miracles, but nevertheless a couple of nice each way bets have kept us ahead for the moment.

Summary: Bet - 23pts, Return - 28.67pts, Profit - 5.67pts

Overall Profit - 8.82pts

Todays bets are as follows:

2:30 Albany Stakes
The forecast slower ground makes what little form available for these 2 year olds as being somewhat unreliable. Sajwah and Switcher are the two I think could improve on the ground, and I'll side with Switcher in view of the trainers great form at present.

Recommendation: Switcher - 4pts @ 10/1* (William Hill)

3:05 King Edward V11 Stakes
I fancied Dordogne until the change in going. That has left me looking at Genius Beast and Alexander Pope for value, and at current prices the value lies with the latter.

Recommendation: Alexander Pope - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:45 Coronation Stakes
The ground seems to be going against the moody Memory, and while I think Theyskens Theory could be a big improver, I like Nova Hawk's credentials, particularly on the slower ground.

Recommendation: Nova Hawk - 4pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)

4:25 Wolferton Handicap
Green Destiny looks to have a real favourite's chance and will inevitably be thereabouts at the finish. I don't like the odds though and have tried to find a juicy each way shot. Riggins looks the best outside bet to me.

Recommendation: Riggins - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (Ladbrokes)

5:00 Queen's Vase
I like everything about Regent Street and regard him as 'banker' material.

Recommendation - Regent Street - 8pts @ 3/1* (Coral) 

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes
Completely wide open race. I have drawn up a case for Castles in the Air, Our Jonathan, Beauchamp Xerxes, Smarty Socks, Advanced, Free for All, Excellent Guest, Noble Citizen and Below Zero, but still couldn't say confidently that the winner is definitely amongst them. A small stakes bet is required therefore, and at decent odds I will plump for Advanced.

Recommendation: Advanced - 1pt ew @ 25/1 (Tote)

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Thursday 16 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Thursday

Not the greatest day yesterday, but a nice result in the last race saved the day.

Summary: Bet 29pts - Return - 28.15pts - Loss - 0.85pts

Overall Profit - 3.15pts

Todays bets are as follows:

2:30 Norfolk Stakes
I have this between Bannock and Everyday Dave, with slight preference for the American horse on the grounds of the draw. Hopefully it won't rain too much and the selection will blow everything away right from the start.

Recommendation: Everyday Dave - 4pts @ 5/1* (Coral)

3:05 Ribblesdale Stakes
I like the Lingfield Oaks trial as the informative race for this. Zain Al Boldan came out on top then, but has since run in the Oaks itself. However Field of Miracles who was 2nd in the trial race hasn't raced since and has juicy odds.

Recommendation: Field of Miracles - 2pts ew @ 28/1* (Coral)

3:45 Gold Cup
So many unproven stayers make this difficult to call. As the class of the race Fame and Glory should win comfortably if he stays, but at the odds I have to plump for Brigantin, trained by the brilliant Andre Fabre.

Recommendation: Brigantin - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)

4:25 Britannia Stakes
A typical wide open Royal Ascot handicap. I think Chilworth Lad, Tinkertown and Vanguard Dream could all run well at big odds, but I like the look of Baptist as a likely winner.

Recommendation: Baptist - 2pts ew @ 18/1 (Skybet)

5:00 Tercentenary Stakes
I see this as a match between Alkinos and Marksmanship, who both have the scope to go on to bigger and better things, with slight preference for the Ballydoyle horse.

Recommendation: Marksmanship - 4pts @ 5/1* (Coral)

5:35 King George V Stakes
This provides my biggest shorlist of the day, which includes Brown Panther, Well Sharp, Charles Camoin, Reflect, Danadana and my eventual pick Communicator, who i hope will pick up for the extra distance of this race.

Recommendation: Communicator - 3pts @ 18.5 (Betfair)

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Wednesday 15 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Had a great start with a maximum stakes win on Canford Cliffs in the first. Was a bit unfortunate that Sweet Sanette and Ermyn Lodge didn't quite last home in their respective races but both outran their odds. Backing Frankel was a case of buying money, while my Japanese pick was completely outclassed. Jamie Spencer gave Gatepost no chance by riding it over from one side of the course to the other, while my last pick was a non runner.

Summary: Bet 28pts - Return - 32pts - Profit 4pts 

I am off to Ascot myself today so haven't got much time to privide any analysis of my bets, so today I will simply list them as follows:

2:30 Jersey Stakes

Recommendation - Western Aristocrat - 4pts @ 8.4 (Betfair) 

3:05 Windsor Forest Stakes

Recommendation - I'm a Dreamer - 6pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)

3:45 Prince of Wales Stakes

Recommendation - Planteur - 6pts @ 5.8 (Betfair)

4:25 Royal Hunt Cup

Recommendation - Capital Attraction 2pts win @ 120 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 17 (Betfair)

5:00 Queen Mary Stakes

Recommendation - Somasach - 2pts win @ 24 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 5.2 (Betfair)

5:35 Sandringham Handicap

Recommendation - Rhythm of Light - 3pts @ 9.8 (Betfair)

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Tuesday 14 June 2011

Royal Ascot - Tuesday

Well here we go. I love the racing in Royal Ascot week, where every race provides interest and offers excellent betting opportunities.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes
What a start! Canford Cliffs v Goldikova. The rain on Sunday was probably more in Goldikova's favour but this is Canford Cliffs manor, and I think he will have too much for the remarkable mare on this occasion. I don't see any other horse having a prayer.
Recommendation - Canford Cliffs - 8pts @ 6/4* (William Hill))

3:05 Kings Stand Stakes
Fairly open event with no standout winner. That provides betting value though, and of the European sprinters we are familiar with Sole Power looks the most likely winner. That said Sunday's rain wouldn't have helped its cause, which has tempted me into looking to the overseas contingent for the winner, and Sweet Sanette could go well at a decent price.
Recommendation - Sweet Sanette - 4pts @ 14/1* (William Hill) 

3:45 St James's Palace Stakes
Can Frankel be beaten? It doesn't seem likely, but is backing him at 1-3 a good bet? Maybe but because Frankel is so short it gives us the opportunity for some each way stealing, and I prefer to go that way to profit from this race. The two I'm tempted by are Dubawi Gold and the Japanese horse Grand Prix Boss. The Japanese have travelled well on big occasions recently including in the Dubai World Cup, and at the juicier longer odds I will go with them.
Recommendation - Grand Prix Boss - 2pts e/w @ 20/1* (Tote)

4:25 Coventry Stakes
The trends for this race suggest we need to concentrate only on those that won their last race, and who will have raced no more than twice, and who have not raced in the last 24 days, therefore being properly rested  and prepared for this race. The one that fits those three criteria and stands out to me is Gatepost, who will hopefully also benefit from being in stall 4. It is often the case that those drawn near either end of the stalls have an advantage in big fields over those drawn to the middle.
Recommendation - Gatepost - 6pts @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)

5:00 Ascot Stakes
 I like the look of the Ascot race where Zigato beat Ermyn Lodge, and can see the winner coming from between the two of them. Zigato appears to be the more progressive, but for both, todays race will always have been the ultimate aim, and at the prices I am more tempted to go for Ermyn Lodge in the hope that the form can be overturned over the extra half mile.
Recommendation - Ermyn Lodge - 2pts e/w @ 16/1* (Coral)

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes
The most wide open race on the card, with a field full of horses with unknown potential. As such any bet should be minimal, and let value be your guide. With that in mind my 4 against the field are Arnold Lane, Hamza, Wolfgang and Lexington Spirit. Mick Channon's comments on his horse in the Racing Post sound the most positive so I will side with him.
Recommendation - Arnold Lane - 1pt e/w @ 33/1* (William Hill)

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Tuesday 7 June 2011

The Betting Challenge

Introduction
Welcome to this brand new and exciting venture. Exciting for me anyway! My name is Matt and I have been betting on horses for the best part of 25 years, in which time the betting world has been transformed. When I first bet you had to go into smoke filled punter unfriendly betting shops to get your fix. Bookmakers worked together to keep odds down and you also had to factor in the vagaries of betting tax. As with the majority I was a losing punter.

The internet and the introduction of betting exchanges transformed everything however. All of a sudden you could get significantly higher odds on your bets than previously imaginable. This forced the major bookmakers to be more competitive in their odds making, particularly in fighting each other over a share of the internet market where there are a plethora of offers such as best price guaranteed if SP is higher, and particularly at the major festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Ascot. Furthermore the modern day Racing Post offers a mine of information not previously available, and there are also invaluable handicapping publications attached to big race trends, which if used sensibly can help an ordinary punter make a profit.


The ChallengeIn the last 10 years I have made regular profits on horse race betting. One of my best friends, Anton, though is a serial doubter that anyone can make money in the long run, even though he likes the occasional small stakes dabble himself. Anyhow I have decided to take up the challenge by putting my neck on the line and proving my success by starting this blog and recording all my bets in advance, with strictly no after timing. So from 14th June and the start of Royal Ascot I will record all my bets on this blog. I have no qualms about any of you following my bets should you wish. Effectively you’ll have a free tipping service. A constant record will be kept of profits and losses and each days betting reviewed honestly, warts and all. There will be good and bad days, but in the long run I am confident of showing a good profit. A final count will take place in a years time, just before Royal Ascot 2012. If I lose I will buy Anton a case of Bordeaux, if I win he’ll probably buy me pint of John Smiths!

StakingAll bets will be recorded on a points basis on a 1 - 8 scale, with 8 being the maximum bet. My own staking works out to 1 point = £25, so my maximum bet of 20 points = £200. If you choose to follow my bets I would urge that you only bet what you can afford, decide on your maximum bet and use the scale accordingly. The table below should assist you to decide the best staking plan for you. As a guide I would expect the average bet to be in the region of 2 points.

1£2.50£5£10£25£50£100
2£5£10£20£50£100£200
3£7.50£15£30£75£150£300
4£10£20£40£100£200£400
5£12.50£25£50£125£250£500
6£15£30£60£150£300£600
7£17.50£35£70£175£350£700
8£20£40£80£200£400£800

 
When to betAs a rule I only bet on the bigger races, so apart from the big festivals most of my betting will centre around Saturday’s and those races that are televised on BBC and Channel 4. The bigger the race the more reliable the form, where the longer established races throw up trends which can help the knowledgeable punter in their handicapping , not open to your run of the mill mid week meeting.
 
Where to bet
To maximise betting value it is vital to be able to shop around for value, and obtain the best odds available on your pick, and would recommend having internet accounts with the bigger more established bookies, namely Betfred, Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Totesport, William Hill and of course Betfair. When I blog my bets I will state the odds taken and the bookies that are offering those odds, and this will be as up to date as possible at the time of posting. When posting my bets I will try to do so at least an hour before the first race of the day.