Irish Derby

Poor day yesterday. At a price I think Memphis Tennessee could win from the front if he can do so with a little more restraint than in the Epsom Derby.

Recommendation: Memphis Tennessee - 4pts @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)

Newcastle/Newmarket - June 25th

Not a bad result last Saturday. Maybe turned out to be the good thing I expected it to be. Was a little disappointed with the ride Elyaadi got in the last, when I felt he would have won if the jockey hadn't been so keen to get him to the front as soon as they hit the straight.

Summary: Bet 35pts - Return - 43.33pts - Profit - 8.33pts

Overall Profit - 1.15pts

No time to provide any analysis of tips, but todays TV race picks are as follows:

2:30 Newcastle: My Kingdom - 1pt ew @ 25/1* Ladbrokes)
2:45 Newmarket: Verdant - 2pts @ 6/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:00 Curragh: Somasach - 1pt @ 6/1* (William Hill)
3:05 Newcastle: English Summer - 1pt ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)
3:20 Newmarket: Kakatosi - 2pts win @ 38 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 8.8 (Betfair)
3:40 Newcastle: Vito Volterra - 1pt @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)

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Royal Ascot - Saturday

Worst day of the meeting yesterday, with the rain making punting a little more difficult.

Summary: Bet 26pts - Return - 10pts - Loss - 16pts

Overall Loss - 7.18pts

Todays bets as follows:

2:30 Chesham Stakes
I've had this as a one horse race, but the rain seems to have brought out a few doubters into Maybe's chances. Hopefully that results in longer starting odds.

Recommendation: Maybe - 8pts @ 7/4* (Coral)

3:05 Hardwicke Stakes
I can see an upset here and its a toss up between Laaheb and Campanologist. Campanologist is the slightly longer odds at present, so that's who I'll back.

Recommendation: Campanologist - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes 
As per usual this looks ultra competitive and I have a long list of potential winners, namely Amico Fritz, Bated Breath, Kingsgate Native, Star Witness and Bewitched. I've just a sneaky feeling Kingsgate Native could put up a big run.

Recommendation: Kingsgate Native - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (William Hill)

4:25 Wokingham Stakes
Another minefield, but the 3 who I think offer the best value are Macs Power, Imperial Guest and Nasri, with slight preference for the latter.

Recommendation: Nasri - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (William Hill)

5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
I think Awsaal could run well at a big price, but the more I look at Taqleed the more I think he has been layed out to win this race.

Recommendation: Taqleed - 2pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The final race of the meet and I can only see Elyaadi triumphing.

Recommendation: Elyaadi - 4pts @ 7/2* (Ladbrokes)

Other Televised Races
2:05 Newmarket: Johnny Castle - 1pt @ 100/30* (William Hill)
2:35 Newmarket: Bunce - 1pt @ 10/1* (William Hill)
3:10 Newmarket: Tameen - 1pt @ 11/2* (William Hill)
3:40 Newmarket: Coeus - 1pt @ 11/2* (William Hill)
2:50 Ayr: Mariachi Man - 2pts @ 4/1 (Tote)
3:25 Ayr: The Nifty Fox - 2pts @ 7/2* (William Hill)
3:20 Redcar: Frognal - 1pt @ 3/1* (William Hill)

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Royal Ascot - Friday

Another case of what might have been yesterday in terms of a big win in regards of Field of Miracles, but nevertheless a couple of nice each way bets have kept us ahead for the moment.

Summary: Bet - 23pts, Return - 28.67pts, Profit - 5.67pts

Overall Profit - 8.82pts

Todays bets are as follows:

2:30 Albany Stakes
The forecast slower ground makes what little form available for these 2 year olds as being somewhat unreliable. Sajwah and Switcher are the two I think could improve on the ground, and I'll side with Switcher in view of the trainers great form at present.

Recommendation: Switcher - 4pts @ 10/1* (William Hill)

3:05 King Edward V11 Stakes
I fancied Dordogne until the change in going. That has left me looking at Genius Beast and Alexander Pope for value, and at current prices the value lies with the latter.

Recommendation: Alexander Pope - 2pts ew @ 16/1* (Ladbrokes)

3:45 Coronation Stakes
The ground seems to be going against the moody Memory, and while I think Theyskens Theory could be a big improver, I like Nova Hawk's credentials, particularly on the slower ground.

Recommendation: Nova Hawk - 4pts @ 8/1* (William Hill)

4:25 Wolferton Handicap
Green Destiny looks to have a real favourite's chance and will inevitably be thereabouts at the finish. I don't like the odds though and have tried to find a juicy each way shot. Riggins looks the best outside bet to me.

Recommendation: Riggins - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (Ladbrokes)

5:00 Queen's Vase
I like everything about Regent Street and regard him as 'banker' material.

Recommendation - Regent Street - 8pts @ 3/1* (Coral) 

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes
Completely wide open race. I have drawn up a case for Castles in the Air, Our Jonathan, Beauchamp Xerxes, Smarty Socks, Advanced, Free for All, Excellent Guest, Noble Citizen and Below Zero, but still couldn't say confidently that the winner is definitely amongst them. A small stakes bet is required therefore, and at decent odds I will plump for Advanced.

Recommendation: Advanced - 1pt ew @ 25/1 (Tote)

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Royal Ascot - Thursday

Not the greatest day yesterday, but a nice result in the last race saved the day.

Summary: Bet 29pts - Return - 28.15pts - Loss - 0.85pts

Overall Profit - 3.15pts

Todays bets are as follows:

2:30 Norfolk Stakes
I have this between Bannock and Everyday Dave, with slight preference for the American horse on the grounds of the draw. Hopefully it won't rain too much and the selection will blow everything away right from the start.

Recommendation: Everyday Dave - 4pts @ 5/1* (Coral)

3:05 Ribblesdale Stakes
I like the Lingfield Oaks trial as the informative race for this. Zain Al Boldan came out on top then, but has since run in the Oaks itself. However Field of Miracles who was 2nd in the trial race hasn't raced since and has juicy odds.

Recommendation: Field of Miracles - 2pts ew @ 28/1* (Coral)

3:45 Gold Cup
So many unproven stayers make this difficult to call. As the class of the race Fame and Glory should win comfortably if he stays, but at the odds I have to plump for Brigantin, trained by the brilliant Andre Fabre.

Recommendation: Brigantin - 2pts ew @ 20/1* (Ladbrokes)

4:25 Britannia Stakes
A typical wide open Royal Ascot handicap. I think Chilworth Lad, Tinkertown and Vanguard Dream could all run well at big odds, but I like the look of Baptist as a likely winner.

Recommendation: Baptist - 2pts ew @ 18/1 (Skybet)

5:00 Tercentenary Stakes
I see this as a match between Alkinos and Marksmanship, who both have the scope to go on to bigger and better things, with slight preference for the Ballydoyle horse.

Recommendation: Marksmanship - 4pts @ 5/1* (Coral)

5:35 King George V Stakes
This provides my biggest shorlist of the day, which includes Brown Panther, Well Sharp, Charles Camoin, Reflect, Danadana and my eventual pick Communicator, who i hope will pick up for the extra distance of this race.

Recommendation: Communicator - 3pts @ 18.5 (Betfair)

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Royal Ascot - Wednesday

Had a great start with a maximum stakes win on Canford Cliffs in the first. Was a bit unfortunate that Sweet Sanette and Ermyn Lodge didn't quite last home in their respective races but both outran their odds. Backing Frankel was a case of buying money, while my Japanese pick was completely outclassed. Jamie Spencer gave Gatepost no chance by riding it over from one side of the course to the other, while my last pick was a non runner.

Summary: Bet 28pts - Return - 32pts - Profit 4pts 

I am off to Ascot myself today so haven't got much time to privide any analysis of my bets, so today I will simply list them as follows:

2:30 Jersey Stakes

Recommendation - Western Aristocrat - 4pts @ 8.4 (Betfair) 

3:05 Windsor Forest Stakes

Recommendation - I'm a Dreamer - 6pts @ 5/1* (William Hill)

3:45 Prince of Wales Stakes

Recommendation - Planteur - 6pts @ 5.8 (Betfair)

4:25 Royal Hunt Cup

Recommendation - Capital Attraction 2pts win @ 120 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 17 (Betfair)

5:00 Queen Mary Stakes

Recommendation - Somasach - 2pts win @ 24 (Betfair), 2pts place @ 5.2 (Betfair)

5:35 Sandringham Handicap

Recommendation - Rhythm of Light - 3pts @ 9.8 (Betfair)

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Royal Ascot - Tuesday

Well here we go. I love the racing in Royal Ascot week, where every race provides interest and offers excellent betting opportunities.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes
What a start! Canford Cliffs v Goldikova. The rain on Sunday was probably more in Goldikova's favour but this is Canford Cliffs manor, and I think he will have too much for the remarkable mare on this occasion. I don't see any other horse having a prayer.
Recommendation - Canford Cliffs - 8pts @ 6/4* (William Hill))

3:05 Kings Stand Stakes
Fairly open event with no standout winner. That provides betting value though, and of the European sprinters we are familiar with Sole Power looks the most likely winner. That said Sunday's rain wouldn't have helped its cause, which has tempted me into looking to the overseas contingent for the winner, and Sweet Sanette could go well at a decent price.
Recommendation - Sweet Sanette - 4pts @ 14/1* (William Hill) 

3:45 St James's Palace Stakes
Can Frankel be beaten? It doesn't seem likely, but is backing him at 1-3 a good bet? Maybe but because Frankel is so short it gives us the opportunity for some each way stealing, and I prefer to go that way to profit from this race. The two I'm tempted by are Dubawi Gold and the Japanese horse Grand Prix Boss. The Japanese have travelled well on big occasions recently including in the Dubai World Cup, and at the juicier longer odds I will go with them.
Recommendation - Grand Prix Boss - 2pts e/w @ 20/1* (Tote)

4:25 Coventry Stakes
The trends for this race suggest we need to concentrate only on those that won their last race, and who will have raced no more than twice, and who have not raced in the last 24 days, therefore being properly rested  and prepared for this race. The one that fits those three criteria and stands out to me is Gatepost, who will hopefully also benefit from being in stall 4. It is often the case that those drawn near either end of the stalls have an advantage in big fields over those drawn to the middle.
Recommendation - Gatepost - 6pts @ 8/1* (Ladbrokes)

5:00 Ascot Stakes
 I like the look of the Ascot race where Zigato beat Ermyn Lodge, and can see the winner coming from between the two of them. Zigato appears to be the more progressive, but for both, todays race will always have been the ultimate aim, and at the prices I am more tempted to go for Ermyn Lodge in the hope that the form can be overturned over the extra half mile.
Recommendation - Ermyn Lodge - 2pts e/w @ 16/1* (Coral)

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes
The most wide open race on the card, with a field full of horses with unknown potential. As such any bet should be minimal, and let value be your guide. With that in mind my 4 against the field are Arnold Lane, Hamza, Wolfgang and Lexington Spirit. Mick Channon's comments on his horse in the Racing Post sound the most positive so I will side with him.
Recommendation - Arnold Lane - 1pt e/w @ 33/1* (William Hill)

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The Betting Challenge

Introduction
Welcome to this brand new and exciting venture. Exciting for me anyway! My name is Matt and I have been betting on horses for the best part of 25 years, in which time the betting world has been transformed. When I first bet you had to go into smoke filled punter unfriendly betting shops to get your fix. Bookmakers worked together to keep odds down and you also had to factor in the vagaries of betting tax. As with the majority I was a losing punter.

The internet and the introduction of betting exchanges transformed everything however. All of a sudden you could get significantly higher odds on your bets than previously imaginable. This forced the major bookmakers to be more competitive in their odds making, particularly in fighting each other over a share of the internet market where there are a plethora of offers such as best price guaranteed if SP is higher, and particularly at the major festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Ascot. Furthermore the modern day Racing Post offers a mine of information not previously available, and there are also invaluable handicapping publications attached to big race trends, which if used sensibly can help an ordinary punter make a profit.


The ChallengeIn the last 10 years I have made regular profits on horse race betting. One of my best friends, Anton, though is a serial doubter that anyone can make money in the long run, even though he likes the occasional small stakes dabble himself. Anyhow I have decided to take up the challenge by putting my neck on the line and proving my success by starting this blog and recording all my bets in advance, with strictly no after timing. So from 14^th June and the start of Royal Ascot I will record all my bets on this blog. I have no qualms about any of you following my bets should you wish. Effectively you’ll have a free tipping service. A constant record will be kept of profits and losses and each days betting reviewed honestly, warts and all. There will be good and bad days, but in the long run I am confident of showing a good profit. A final count will take place in a years time, just before Royal Ascot 2012. If I lose I will buy Anton a case of Bordeaux, if I win he’ll probably buy me pint of John Smiths!

StakingAll bets will be recorded on a points basis on a 1 - 8 scale, with 8 being the maximum bet. My own staking works out to 1 point = £25, so my maximum bet of 20 points = £200. If you choose to follow my bets I would urge that you only bet what you can afford, decide on your maximum bet and use the scale accordingly. The table below should assist you to decide the best staking plan for you. As a guide I would expect the average bet to be in the region of 2 points.

1	£2.50	£5	£10	£25	£50	£100
2	£5	£10	£20	£50	£100	£200
3	£7.50	£15	£30	£75	£150	£300
4	£10	£20	£40	£100	£200	£400
5	£12.50	£25	£50	£125	£250	£500
6	£15	£30	£60	£150	£300	£600
7	£17.50	£35	£70	£175	£350	£700
8	£20	£40	£80	£200	£400	£800

　
When to betAs a rule I only bet on the bigger races, so apart from the big festivals most of my betting will centre around Saturday’s and those races that are televised on BBC and Channel 4. The bigger the race the more reliable the form, where the longer established races throw up trends which can help the knowledgeable punter in their handicapping , not open to your run of the mill mid week meeting.
　
Where to betTo maximise betting value it is vital to be able to shop around for value, and obtain the best odds available on your pick, and would recommend having internet accounts with the bigger more established bookies, namely Betfred, Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Totesport, William Hill and of course Betfair. When I blog my bets I will state the odds taken and the bookies that are offering those odds, and this will be as up to date as possible at the time of posting. When posting my bets I will try to do so at least an hour before the first race of the day.