Well yesterday was the perfect example of the benefits to be gained from shopping around and making the most of the concessions that bookies offer at the big meetings. On what would ordinarily have been a losing day I escaped, and even made a slight profit by getting my stake back from Paddy Power after Sprinter Sacre won the Arkle, and getting paid each way terms by Betfred/Tote on Billie Magern finishing 5th.
Summary: Bet - 24pts, Return - 24.8pts, Profit - 0.8pts
Overall Profit - 77.8pts
Todays race analysis as follows:
1:30 - One of the hardest races to call, with the 4 mile distance a great unknown for all. As such I have a lengthy shortlist incorporating Allee Garde, Blenheim Brook, Court Red Handed, Lively Baron and Our Island. Allee Garde looks the likeliest winner, but the others all offer each way value and one of them might improve enough to win.
Recommended Bet: Allee Garde - 4pts @ 8.6 (Betfair)
2:05 - Another race where I have a lengthy shortlist, this time including Cotton Mill, Make Your Mark, Monksland, Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux. Simonsig offers poor value, and preference is for the two Willie Mullins entrants, with Ruby Walsh tipping the scales in favour of his ride.
Recommended Bet: Sous Les Cieux - 4pts @ 7.6 (Betfair)
2:40 - Bobs Worth is one of my bets of the meeting, even with Grands Crus bypassing the Gold Cup to oppose him here. With improvement in his jumping I hope to see him staying on past his rivals to win up the hill in the final stretch.
Recommended Bet: Bobs Worth - 8pts @ 5.5 (Betfair)
3:20 - A race where I see the favourite and reigning champion, Sizing Europe, getting beat by either Big Zeb or Finians Rainbow. Both are decent value alternatives but I prefer the chances of the more experienced Big Zeb.
Recommended Bet: Big Zeb - 7pts @ 6.6 (Betfair)
4:00 - A big field, and a shorlist made up of Act Of Kalanisi, Cape Dutch and Tenor Nivernais. Venetia Williams knows what it takes to win this race, and with the stable in such good form the longish odds on Tenor Nivernais make him the most attractive option.
Recommended Bet: Tenor Nivernais - 2pts ew @ 33/1* (Tote)
4:40 - An even more difficult race to call where you need to read into trainers intentions and horses potential, as the winner will almost definitely be much better than anything they will have shown on the racecourse as yet. Likely types include Bat Masterson, Dark And Dangerous and Edeyemi. Its a toss up between the three, but the 5lbs claim that young Brendan Powell gets puts Dark And Dangerous on a nice low weight, so I'll plump for him.
Recommended Bet: Dark And Dangerous - 1pt ew @ 25/1* (Tote)
5:15 - I have this between Moscow Mannon, Royal Guardsman and The New One, with preference for the Colin Tizzard horse.
Recommended Bet: Royal Guardsman - 3pts @ 9.8 (Betfair)
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